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Global Trends in Livestock Feedstuffs: Income, Urbanization, and Political Factors, Notas de estudo de zootecnia

The global trends in livestock feedstuffs use, focusing on agronomic and political factors. The author examines the role of income, urbanization, and cultural factors in determining livestock product consumption and feedstuffs usage. The document also explores the impact of economic growth on the demand for livestock products and feedstuffs, particularly in developing countries. Insights into the changing consumption patterns and the implications for agricultural production.

Tipologia: Notas de estudo

2015

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Baixe Global Trends in Livestock Feedstuffs: Income, Urbanization, and Political Factors e outras Notas de estudo em PDF para zootecnia, somente na Docsity! PART I Present and future supply of feedstuffs Poultry f_s - Chap 01 29/5/02 11:20 AM Page 1 Poultry f_s - Chap 01 29/5/02 11:20 AM Page 2 In traditional societies, cultural and religious prohibitions also play an important role in determining patterns of livestock product consumption and feedstuffs usage. Such prohibitions might or might not be modified along with the changing social and economic nature of society. They will, however, play an important role in determining the early shape of such development as does take place. For example, it is difficult to envisage, certainly in the short to medium term, the evolution of a successful beef-based livestock product indus- try in India in those regions where the predominant religious tradition and prac- tice is Hindu; similar considerations apply to pork in the case of Islam. Significantly, no society displays obvious significant religious-cultural restraints on poultrymeat or fish consumption. In recent years, there have been significant changes in the worldwide pattern of livestock product consumption. In the developed world, income elasticities of demand for livestock prod- ucts have fallen sharply. This will be discussed in more detail subsequently, but the significance of the income variable in the consumption function has dimin- ished relative to other considerations. In emerging economies, notably those of Asia and, in particular, China, demand for livestock products is increasing very rapidly, albeit this process has been interrupted by economic difficulties since 1996, less so in China than in Pacific Rim countries. This is a function of, in some but not all cases, expanding population, rising money incomes and increasing urbanization. Population growth worldwide appears to have peaked in the late 1960s when it stood at 2.1% a year. This factor underpinned the Club of Rome’s report in 1972 predicting a crisis of Malthusian proportions. This has, so far, not ensued because of falling rates of population growth and the effects of the Green Revolution in agricultural production. Longer-term projections from the United Nations suggest that, for the first 20 years of the next century, popula- tion growth will average 1.4% annually. This will be divided into 0.4% for the developed countries and 1.7% for the developing nations. Another source sug- gests that, from a total of 6 billion in 2000, world population is expected to grow to 7.5 billion in 2020, equivalent to an average annual rate of growth of 1.1%. The role of urbanization, as people seek work in cities and towns, is an important element in determining the demand for livestock products and thus feedstuffs. In 1960, around 22% of the population of the developing countries resided in urban areas. By 1980, this figure had increased to 30% (Pinstrup- Anderson, 1992). One study suggested that, by 2000 and as a result of the extraordinary growth of industry in China and other Asian countries, urban dwelling in the developing countries would account for 44% of the population. In global terms, it has been noted that, during the 20th century, the world’s population grew from 1.5 billion to 6 billion; the urban population grew from 200 million to around 3 billion, half the total. Factors influencing feedstuff use 5 CHANGING CONSUMPTION PATTERNS Poultry f_s - Chap 01 29/5/02 11:20 AM Page 5 A number of studies have suggested that urbanization exerts a significant effect on qualitative food demand. Dietary transitions noted include a move away from staple crops such as sorghum, maize and millet towards cereals requiring less preparation time and, significantly, towards livestock products and other processed foods. Also, significantly, such studies which have been carried out in Asia note not only a substantial increase in the demand for livestock prod- ucts but also increased preference for wheat relative to rice (Bouis, 1994). Urbanization is a by-product of economic growth and, in recent years, eco- nomic growth as measured by GDP has been significantly greater in the devel- oping countries, notwithstanding economic disruption in Asia and the remarkable evolution of the US economy in the 1990s. One author, discussing long-term projections for Asian economic growth in the early 1990s, com- mented that ‘the high growth rates in developing countries are projected to continue in future’ (Rosegrant et al., 1995). This prediction was not borne out by events, but there remained little doubt that, once economic stabilization has been achieved, Asian and other developing countries would resume relatively high rates of economic growth. This optimism will be moderated by the US economic slowdown that has already had severe knock-on effects in South-East Asia, further compounded by the effects of the terrorist outrages in the USA. The effects of such growth on the demand for livestock products and thus for feed are, nevertheless, difficult to quantify. Income effects will vary from country to country. In the developing countries, FAO studies indicate that income elasticities of demand can range from –0.4 in the case of some of the more traditional staple crops such as maize to +0.3 for high quality rice and, for a range of meats, from +0.2 to +0.9. As livestock production becomes more commercialized in response to increased consumer demand, a major consideration will be the extent to which a particu- lar country can satisfy increased demand for feedstuffs on its own account and the extent to which it will have to rely on imports. Studies indicate that, in the developing countries, price elasticities of supply for most crops including those for livestock feed are, in general, fairly small (Huang et al., 1995). This implies that increased agricultural production to feed-growing popu- lations will depend on autonomous growth in areas cultivated and in the yield per hectare of cultivated land. A number of factors are relevant here, including public and private research and development, conventional plant breeding, wide-crossing and hybridization breeding, biotechnology and the development of supportive infra- structure such as agricultural extension, markets and the availability of irrigation. There is widespread agreement that the production increases that charac- terized the 1960s through to the early 1980s cannot be regarded as typical. This partly reflects the exhaustion of the Green Revolution effects but it also reflects other factors, notably the reduced availability of cultivable land and some serious deficiencies in infrastructure investment, notably in irrigation. 6 R.W. Dean SATISFYING INCREASED DEMAND FOR LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS – THE INPUT REQUIREMENT Poultry f_s - Chap 01 29/5/02 11:20 AM Page 6 The area planted worldwide to wheat and coarse grains for the 2000/01 harvest was 514 million hectares; 3.1% less than it was 30 years ago. This reflects diversion of land to other crops but it is also a by-product of the increas- ing urbanization of the planet, including the transfer of farm land to industrial activity and the abandonment of many small-scale farming enterprises; a process which has not, especially in many developing countries, been accom- panied by sufficient investment in mechanized agriculture. Final production in 2000/01 is projected at 1.44 billion tonnes; 49% greater than 30 years ago. This is due to increased yields per hectare, equiva- lent over the past three decades to almost 1.5% a year. While this may appear satisfactory, it is a matter for major concern that the rolling 5-year % increase in cereal yields, as shown in Fig. 1.1, has been falling since the mid-to-late 1980s. There are a number of reasons for this, which are specific to different regions of the world. In the developed world, the decline in the growth of cereal yields per hectare is primarily due to policy measures designed to draw down cereal stocks and to substitute direct payments to farmers for farm-price support programmes. In Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, eco- nomic collapse and subsequent economic reforms further depressed already low productivity. In developing countries, particularly in Asia, the slow-down in cereal productivity growth has been a function partly of growing water shortages and of inadequate public investment, notably in irrigation infrastruc- ture. There is also, ominously, clear evidence of diminishing returns at work in that ever-increasing use of fertilizers, water and other inputs are needed to sus- tain yield gains. Factors influencing feedstuff use 7 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 G ro w th o ve r 5 ye ar s (% ) 1978/79 1983/84 1988/89 1993/94 1998/99 2001/02 8.3 9.7 12.9 8.7 6.2 4.6 Fig. 1.1. Five-year rolling yield increase for wheat and coarse grains. Poultry f_s - Chap 01 29/5/02 11:20 AM Page 7 The extent to which feedstuffs production and usage in the developing world increases will depend on competition for the available resources of land, labour and capital. It is, for example, suggested that where land is the main constraint, farmers may prefer to concentrate on high-value crops for fast-growing urban mar- kets rather than on feedstuffs production. While production of livestock is expected to increase in the developing world, it is questionable whether they will produce requisite feedstuffs themselves or import them. Certainly, most recent studies sug- gest a substantial net increase in developing countries’ net imports both of live- stock products and feedstuffs during the first quarter of the 21st century. The extent to which yield growth for most cereals has declined in recent years is of concern because of the pressures being exerted on cultivable land. Again, this stresses the combined effect of industrial encroachment and inade- quate investment in infrastructure and irrigation. In this section of the chapter, the background to consumption of feedstuffs is discussed with particular reference to the consumption of livestock products. A very generalized form of analysis defined consumption of any product as follows: Consumption = Income, Price, Underlying Demand, Dummy Variable, Error C (1..n) f (Y (1..n),P (1..n),Du (1..n),Vd (1..n), (1..n)) In a collection of papers marking the 50th anniversary of the National Food Survey, one contributor suggests that each of these variables has in turn dominated the consumption of livestock products since the end of the Second World War. Ritson and Hutchins (1991) suggested that post-war food con- sumption in Britain could be divided into five phases to which the present author would add a sixth. These are as follows, and are applicable in general terms to all developed European economies but not to the USA. 1951–1960 Return to normal diets With the end of rationing in 1951 and the availability of more plentiful supplies of food, consumers were enabled to return to what would have been regarded as a more normal pattern of consumption, given the constraints of prevailing incomes and prices. 1960–1970 Income-driven demand Increasing consumption of livestock products reflected rising real disposable consumer income. As people felt wealthier, they felt freer to trade up to more expensive products or to consume more of existing products. This period can be summed up in Harold Macmillan’s immortal political slogan for the General 10 R.W. Dean CONSUMER POWER The Use of Statistical Method in the Analysis of Consumption Poultry f_s - Chap 01 29/5/02 11:20 AM Page 10 Election of 1959; ‘You’ve Never Had It So Good’. Consumption of some more traditional food products such as canned meats and sausages declined, while that of fresh meat and poultry as well as cheese increased. 1970–1980 Price The 1970s were a disturbed period in post-war UK history. The UK joined the EU in 1973 and this required a 5-year period of transition to higher EU farm prices, including those for livestock products. The oil-shock of 1973 caused a period of rapidly rising world commodity prices. In addition, this was a period of considerable social unrest, epitomized by the 3-day week following the start of the miners’ strike and the two General Elections of 1974; the first fought on the basis of ‘Who Governs Britain’. 1980–1990 Underlying demand and dummy variables The Lawson boom of the late 1980s created new patterns of consumption; of livestock products no less than of Porsches and designer clothing. Part of this can be described as ‘lifestyle’, such as the abandonment of the family lunch on Sunday and the increased incidence of convenience food and takeaway eating. A spin-off of the lifestyle effect has been the increasing consumer concern with ‘healthy eating’. This has impacted on milk and butter consumption while ben- efiting poultry consumption at the expense of the red meats. Dummy variables, used to represent discrete events such as the Salmonella crisis in 1988, the lead contamination problem that affected dairy feeds in 1989 and the ongoing BSE crisis that rumbled on through much of 1989–1990, finally breaking in full fury in 1996, assume much greater importance during this period. Post 1990 The collapse of consumer confidence There can be little doubt that, in the UK and in Western Europe in general, consumer confidence in the food they eat has been eroded by succeeding ‘food scares’ and a remarkable degree of ineptitude on the part of governments in the management of those scares. Only if it is argued that governments are constitutionally incapable of learn- ing from past mistakes, are the actions of the Belgian government over the dioxin scandal comprehensible. In the UK, the BSE crisis undermined more than consumer confidence in beef. The jury may still be said to be out on the question of who, if anyone, was to blame but, in recent comments about gov- ernment trustworthiness over GM foods, the BSE saga is often quoted by the opponents of GM technology to illustrate the non-credibility of the government and thus, by extension, the credibility of the lobby groups. It has been a long-standing principle on the part of the feedstuffs industry that science and scientific method should determine how feedstuffs are used to feed poultry as in any other form of livestock production. It cannot, how- ever, be assumed that this principle will, in future, be accepted by consumers or, at least, by their self-appointed guardians in the consumer and environ- mental movements. It must be noted, none the less, that two recent controversies, one non- food related and the other definitively so, have been sparked off by allegedly Factors influencing feedstuff use 11 Poultry f_s - Chap 01 29/5/02 11:20 AM Page 11 scientific evidence which has been used by organizations to create alarm which has been enthusiastically taken up by the media. The Brent Spar oil platform controversy pursued by Greenpeace was based on quite erroneous evidence as to the amount of pollution that would ensue should the platform be sunk, as originally intended, in deep Atlantic waters. Greenpeace subsequently apolo- gized to Shell Oil for their misrepresentation of the facts – a fact studiously ignored by most of the media on the grounds that it is the height of political incorrectness to attack Greenpeace – but the damage was done. The debate over genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is, potentially, much more critical not just to the feedstuffs industry but to science in general. The GM controversy – it cannot surely be called a debate – initiated by the publication of a letter supporting the cause of Dr Arpad Pusztai of the Rowett Research Institute, whose work on the effects of GM potatoes, genetically modi- fied to express a lectin originating in the snowdrop, on the gut of rats has achieved a certain notoriety. Again, reputable bodies, including the Royal Society, have questioned the scientific basis of this work. No matter. This hare has been set running and the feed industry and the livestock industry must face the unpalatable fact that further factors have entered the Research and Development equation. The first is the emergence into positions of prominence of organizations whose belief in the moral rightness of their cause – and it is a moral rightness because no scientific consideration is involved – is comparable with the self- righteousness of a 17th-century Witchfinder-General or the Dominican-inspired Inquisition. Governments are in the position, increasingly, of having to defer to such organizations. Brussels’ immediate reaction, for example, to the dioxin scandal was to announce plans to review the list of permitted ingredients and the schedule of undesirable substances in feedstuffs. Since dioxins are not, as far as the author is aware, a permitted ingredient in feedstuffs, this response seems less than relevant. However, it leads to a much more significant general point. Over the past decade, three controversies have afflicted the livestock indus- try. These references do not include sporadic outbreaks of Salmonella, E. coli 0157, Campylobacter and Listeria. For more than a decade, a debate has raged over hormone-based growth promoters in beef production, largely as a result of a trade dispute with the USA that permits the use of such substances. Most scientific evidence tends to support the view that, properly used, such substances pose no danger to either beef cattle or to human consumers of beef. Bovine somatotrophin therapy in milk production has been licensed in the USA. This is a biotechnology product that significantly increases milk produc- tion. Welfare issues have been raised about its effect on dairy cows; the role of IGF-1 on human health remains controversial. The latest controversy over GM foods affects the feedstuffs industry in that two important raw materials used by the feed industry, maize and soybeans, are directly affected. Setting aside, for the moment, the biotechnology-related aspects of bovine somatotrophin and GM crops, these three areas of dispute are linked by one common factor. The products are science-generated and the body of fact avail- 12 R.W. Dean Poultry f_s - Chap 01 29/5/02 11:20 AM Page 12
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